Imagine a golf tournament where the final round’s outcome hinges not just on skill, but on the whims of Mother Nature herself. That’s exactly what’s happening at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, where the forecast is as much a player as the pros themselves. But here’s where it gets controversial: could the weather actually level the playing field, giving underdogs a fighting chance against the leaders? Let’s dive in.
The third round at Pebble Beach was a tale of two courses. Early starters, like 54-hole leader Akshay Bhatia, enjoyed calm conditions, with Bhatia firing six birdies in his first seven holes to reach 2-under through nine. But as the winds picked up—gusting up to 23 mph along the coastline—the course transformed. Bhatia’s back nine was a grind, finishing 2-over for a 4-under round, giving him a two-shot lead heading into Sunday. Meanwhile, Collin Morikawa (+490) took full advantage of the morning’s tranquility, carding a stunning 10-under 62 while hitting all 18 greens in regulation—a feat he’s achieved only twice before in his PGA TOUR career. Morikawa now sits just two shots back, eyeing his first win since the 2023 ZOZO Championship.
And this is the part most people miss: Round 4 is all about the weather. Tee times have been moved up, with players teeing off in threesomes from both tees to outrun the worsening conditions. Early forecasts predict winds between 6 and 12 mph with a 25% chance of rain, but by noon, the rain probability jumps to 35%, and winds could sustain between 10 and 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph. As the day progresses, the course could become a beast, potentially pushing scores closer to even par or even over par for the late starters.
Here’s where it gets tricky: Pebble Beach has played slightly under par this week, but history shows that when the wind howls off the Pacific, scores can skyrocket. If conditions deteriorate as expected, the late wave could struggle, making ‘overs’ in the scoring markets (currently posted between 68.5 and 69.5) a tempting bet. If the course plays closer to half a stroke over par, the field average could climb to 71, creating a significant margin.
But it’s not just about scoring—it’s about timing. Golfers with early tee times will face milder winds (6-12 mph) compared to the late starters, who could battle gusts up to 30 mph. This disparity often leads to dramatic shifts on the leaderboard as the day unfolds.
Two key stats stand out for Sunday: performance in extreme wind and performance in cooler temperatures (mid-50s are expected). Over the last 36 rounds in heavy wind, Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Shane Lowry top the Strokes Gained: Total leaderboard. Meanwhile, Scheffler, McIlroy, and Nick Taylor lead in cooler temps (44-57 degrees).
Speaking of Lowry, he’s a prime candidate for a top-10 finish (+220 on FanDuel). Last season’s runner-up at Pebble Beach gained +4.9 strokes putting, and his game thrives in windy conditions, where he ranks third in this field with +1.63 strokes gained per round. Sitting just one shot outside the top 10 at 11 under, Lowry is poised to capitalize if the weather turns nasty.
Now, let’s talk about Morikawa to win (+490). Holding a lead in heavy wind is no small feat, especially when Bhatia ranks outside the top 40 in windy conditions over his last 36 rounds. Morikawa, however, ranks fifth, gaining +1.42 strokes per round in such conditions. His ball-striking has been stellar this week (+3.5 strokes), but his putting has been a weak spot—losing strokes in nine of his last 10 events. If he can stay neutral on the greens, as he did in Round 3, his approach play gives him a real shot at victory.
Finally, in the three-ball market, Russell Henley (-104) stands out over Sami Valimaki and Tony Finau. Henley ranks inside the top 20 in windy conditions and has gained 0.5 strokes total and 1.05 strokes putting this week. Valimaki and Finau, on the other hand, have historically struggled in the wind, making Henley’s price a smart play.
Here’s the burning question: Will the weather crown an unexpected champion, or will the favorites rise above the elements? Let us know your thoughts in the comments—do you think Morikawa can close the deal, or will someone like Lowry steal the show?
