In a striking revelation, a recent global survey indicates that Donald Trump, rather than enhancing America’s standing, might be inadvertently contributing to the resurgence of China on the world stage. Conducted by the prestigious European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), this extensive study encompasses 21 nations and unveils a shift in perception regarding America’s influence under Trump’s ‘America First’ mantra.
The findings of this survey, which engaged nearly 26,000 participants across diverse regions including Europe, the US, China, India, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa, and South Korea, reveal an unsettling trend: many people foresee a surge in China’s global clout over the next decade. Notably, 83% of respondents from South Africa, 72% from Brazil, and 63% from Turkey believe in China’s growing significance, while even in the United States, 54% share this sentiment. This widespread belief extends to numerous European Union countries, where over half anticipate that China will soon dominate the sectors of electric vehicles and renewable energy.
Interestingly, concerns about China’s increasing influence appear minimal. The survey highlights that only in Ukraine and South Korea do majorities perceive China as a competitor or adversary. In fact, there’s been a noticeable shift in attitudes, with more individuals in countries like South Africa, India, and Brazil viewing China as an ally compared to two years prior. Among the respondents, 85% in South Africa, 86% in Russia, and 73% in Brazil consider China either a crucial partner or a close ally, while the perception within the EU remains relatively stable, with 45% regarding China as a necessary collaborator.
On the other hand, the survey reveals a decline in confidence regarding the future dominance of the United States. Outside of Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey, no majority—including Americans themselves—expect American influence to rise further. This decline in the perception of the US as a reliable ally is particularly evident in Europe, where only 16% now see the United States in that light, illustrating a stark drop from previous years. Alarmingly, 20% of respondents view the US as either a rival or an enemy, showcasing a growing trend of disillusionment.
Moreover, expectations surrounding Trump’s leadership have fallen sharply; fewer people believe that his potential re-election would benefit American citizens, their respective nations, or contribute positively to global peace compared to the previous year.
This survey, part of an ongoing analysis in collaboration with Oxford University’s Europe in a Changing World project, suggests an evolving geopolitical landscape where perceptions of Europe are also shifting, particularly in Russia. As the war in Ukraine approaches its fifth anniversary, there is a noticeable increase in the number of Russians who view Europe as an adversary (51%, up from 41% the previous year), while fewer regard the US in a similar light (37%, down from 48%). Conversely, Ukrainians are increasingly likely to see Europe as an ally (39%), in contrast to merely 18% who view the US as supportive.
In China, opinions are also diverging; 61% consider the US a threat, but only 19% express similar sentiments towards the EU. Remarkably, 59% of Chinese respondents regard the EU as a significant power, with 46% recognizing it as mostly a partner—notably contrasting with the 40% of Americans who share this view despite Trump’s critical stance on the EU.
However, this optimism about the EU isn’t universally echoed among Europeans. A significant percentage (46%) doubt that the EU can engage on equal footing with superpowers like the US or China, a sentiment that has grown over the past year. Many Europeans harbor skepticism about the future, with nearly half fearing negative outcomes for both their own countries (49%) and the world at large (51%), largely due to the looming threat of Russian aggression (40%) and the potential for a major conflict in Europe (55%). In response, over half of the respondents (52%) advocate for increased defense spending.
The authors of the report assert that the data reveals a world where US actions seem to be inadvertently bolstering China's position. They argue that Trump's interventions, such as those seen in Venezuela and his territorial ambitions toward Greenland, suggest a strategic shift towards cultivating fear rather than affection from other nations.
As a result, Europe may find itself in a precarious position, either marginalized or overlooked in this emerging global framework. The report emphasizes that political leaders across Europe must acknowledge the radical nature of these geopolitical shifts and adapt accordingly, moving beyond mere management strategies to actively positioning themselves as a significant force in a multipolar world before they risk becoming irrelevant.
